The heating up of geopolitics has affected the development of Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain. Liu Peizhen, director of the Taiwan Economic Research Institute's Industrial and Economic Database, believes that after U.S. President Trump took office, he has launched wave after wave of offensives against Taiwan's semiconductors. In the future, TSMC's increase in the proportion of advanced process production in the United States may be a foregone conclusion.
The Taiwan Academy of Economics held the "2026 Prosperity Outlook and Industry Trends Seminar" today. Liu Peizhen pointed out that after Trump took office this year, he has taken frequent actions on the semiconductor industry. TSMC is the leader in global foundry technology, winning in terms of performance, yield, and customer acceptance. However, it has also become the number one target of the United States coveting Taiwan's semiconductor industry.
TSMC has made the decision to significantly increase its investment in the United States and is exempted from tariffs on wafers. Liu Peizhen believes that from a manufacturer's perspective, TSMC's total investment in the United States continues to increase, and it may be a foregone conclusion that the proportion of advanced process production in the United States will increase in the future. From an industrial perspective, the pressure of supply chain restructuring may weaken Taiwan's complete local semiconductor ecosystem. As Taiwanese factories accelerate investment in the United States, the effect of the semiconductor industry on Taiwan's economy may change.
However, in terms of industry performance, Liu Peizhen pointed out that in 2025, the output value of the domestic semiconductor industry will hit a new high in history, and at the same time, the annual growth rate will be higher than that of the world; especially in terms of foundry, TSMC’s technology surpasses the rest and is the biggest winner after NVIDIA (NVIDIA) in the AI generation.
Liu Peizhen said that the reorganization of the global supply chain under Trump 2.0 is a complex and long process, involving huge costs and adjustments. At the same time, the "fight and talk" model between the United States and China has become the new normal, which will prompt global companies to rethink the balance between the efficiency and resilience of the supply chain, and accelerate the reshaping of geopolitical and economic power. For Taiwan, it is a challenge and an opportunity.