US President Donald Trump asked NVIDIA to distribute 15% of the "20" chip sales to the Washington government. Analysts believe that NVIDIA should have the ability to transfer costs to Chinese customers and increase sales prices by 18%, while gross profit margin will decline slightly, but the impact is not big.
Deepwater Asset Management co-founder Gene Munster published a research report on the 16th, pointing out that the agreement between NVIDIA executive director Jensen Huang and Trump has opened a new model of "pay-to-play" in the Chinese market.
Munster believes that NVIDIA's gross profit margin will be roughly not affected, because the company should be able to transfer the cost of operating and sharing to Chinese customers, and to maintain the gross profit amount, the price will be increased by 18%.
The current common sense on Huaer Street is that NVIDIA's gross profit margin in 2026 will reach 71%. If NVIDIA increases the price of H20 by 18%, the gross profit margin of H20 business will be reduced from 71% to 60%. Assuming H20 accounts for 15% of the total revenue, this will lead to the overall gross profit margin of NVIDIA drop from 71% to 69.3%.
When calculating gross profit margin, what is more difficult is that the US government's 15% share of the revenue is also suitable for newly adjusted prices. Munster believes that although NVIDIA's gross profit margin will decline slightly, investors will focus on gross profit margin rather than gross profit margin because this is affected by external political pressure.
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