Mega Securities held the "2026 Investment Outpost, Facing New Trends in Taiwan Stocks" forum today. Huang Guowei, the professional vice president of Mega Investment Consulting, said that the key to the market in 2026 is how to find growth amid shocks, because shocks will become the norm, and strategies trump themes. It is expected that Taiwan stocks will usher in a new round of structural changes.
Chen Peijun, chairman of Mega Securities, said that the Taiwanese stock market has experienced multiple violent shocks in 2025, which has demonstrated the importance of forward-looking information and strategic layout. Taiwanese companies are flexible and innovative in the process of reorganizing the global supply chain. They believe they can still shine on the international stage. Investors need to carefully adjust investment strategies and choose investment targets to seek stable returns.
In terms of investment strategy, Huang Guowei said that the key to the market in 2026 is how to find growth amid fluctuations. Therefore, investors should pay attention to three core topics. The first is how Taiwan stocks can continue to grow during the high base period; the second is whether interest rate cuts can be implemented in the market's expectations; and finally, whether high-rated stocks can attract continued capital inflow, emphasizing that constructing a multi-asset allocation will be an important tool in the face of fluctuations.
Huang Guowei pointed out that the AI bubble is still brewing, but technology giants all have multiple roles in consumption, manufacturing, investment, and investment. The price-to-earnings ratio of U.S. stocks in 2025 will reach the fourth highest in history, mainly driven by the growth of technology, raw materials, and industrial stocks. Investors must be cautious when evaluating high price-to-earnings ratios and should pay attention to possible high base period risks. The overall situation will be volatile and opportunities will coexist.
Liu Peizhen, director of industrial and economic information at the National Taiwan Institute of Economics, said that Taiwanese factories setting up factories in the United States will help deepen cooperation with key customers such as AI and cloud, and diversify geopolitical risks, but they will face challenges such as high costs and difficulty in replicating talent and supply chains. Core R&D and advanced processes must remain in Taiwan to maintain technological leadership in order to continue to consolidate competitiveness in the restructuring of global supply chains.
Liu Peizhen pointed out that Trump’s tariffs currently require attention to tax rates and details. Although TSMC should be able to pass the customs smoothly, the subsequent impact on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry will be huge. From a manufacturer’s perspective, investments in the United States can be exempted, but the total investment continues to increase. In the future, the proportion of advanced process production in the United States may increase. From an industrial perspective, supply chain restructuring will weaken Taiwan’s local semiconductor industry.
Liu Peizhen believes that the U.S.-China technology war affects Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain, especially AI chips. Overall, judging from TSMC's current factory layout in Japan, the United States, and Germany, TSMC's future overseas factory investment layout will focus on the United States, and the pace will be accelerated. This includes TSMC's commitment to build three wafer fabs, two advanced packaging plants, and R&D centers in the United States in the next few years.
Xie Jinhe, chairman of Caixin Media, said that 2026 will be an investment year with technology, supply chain and value reconstruction as the main axis. The United States, Japan and Taiwan are in a dominant position in global industrial competition. As for Taiwan stocks, the AI era has truly arrived. "Whoever controls the chip controls the world" will become the main axis. Taiwan's supply chain is benefiting from the AI wave, and Taiwan's stock market capitalization has jumped to the forefront of the world, which is a rare investment opportunity.
Further reading: Taiwan's 101 technology stocks have an annual gain greater than TSMC! Active Qunyi Technology Innovation ETF will be launched on 12/8 0050 The scale is approaching 900 billion yuan! Linked funds have dominated Taiwan stock funds in terms of net subscriptions this year The accuracy rate in the past year has reached 90%! Schroders’ top ten predictions for long U.S. stocks and short U.S. dollars in 2026 exposed